India Meteorological Department warns of below average monsoon rainfall for July
The India Meteorological Department has lowered its forecast for the upcoming monsoon season after a period of significantly low rainfall in June. This follows what was recorded as one of the driest months since records began in 1901.
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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a warning that monsoon rains for the month of July are likely to fall below average levels. This forecast follows a period in June where rainfall was recorded at approximately 39% to 40% below the long-period average, making it the fifth-driest June since records began in 1901, according to reports from News18 and Livemint.
In response to these figures, the IMD has downgraded its forecast for the southwest monsoon from 92% down to 90% of the expected average. Meteorologists attribute this trend of delayed and diminished rainfall to a developing El Niño pattern in the Pacific Ocean.
While overall seasonal totals are lower than initially predicted, local reports indicate that the monsoon is still moving toward regions including Delhi and Haryana within two to three days.
Why this matters
The monsoon provides a significant portion of annual rainfall for India and is essential for the agricultural sector. Lower than expected rainfall can impact crop yields and affect water levels in reservoirs used for irrigation and consumption.
What's confirmed / what isn't
Multiple independent sources confirm both the record low rainfall levels for June and the subsequent downgrade of the July monsoon forecast. The influence of the El Niño pattern on these conditions is also reported across multiple outlets.
Background
The monsoon is a seasonal wind pattern that brings critical rain to South Asia during the summer months. El Niño is a climate pattern involving the warming of surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which often influences global weather patterns.